混合策略賽局之研究與實驗

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Title:	混合策略賽局之研究與實驗
Other Titles:	Experiment and theory of a Mixed Strategies Game
Authors:	陳姵穎;Chen, Pei-Ying
Contributors:	淡江大學國際企業學系碩士班蔡政言;Tsai Jeng-Yan
Keywords:	賽局理論;混合策略;課堂實驗;Game Theory;Mixed Strategies;Classroom Experiments
Date:	2015
Issue Date:	2016-01-22 14:48:49 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	人生處處是賽局，人們無時無刻都在做決策，為達到其理想結果，突顯出混合賽局策略運用的重要性，因此本研究設計出混合策略賽局讓150位學生在課堂上參與實驗，主要目的在於探討在三個不同賽局階段下，參賽者背景因素包含性別、學院別、修習經濟學學科與否、數學教育程度是否會影響其決策行為，另外用數學理論推導歸納出本研究賽局中參賽者之優勢策略以獲得最佳報酬，最後再與實驗分析結果比較相異點，藉以驗證理論與實驗之異同。研究結果發現：在三個不同情境下參賽者決策行為沒有顯著差異，且每階段之平均工作機率皆近於1/2，與本研究混合策略理論推導之最適策略異同，因此推論參與者傾向使用隨機式的策略選擇。全部參與者性別、經濟學修習與否以及所屬學院對其選擇策略並不產生影響，然而是否修習過統計學與管理經驗則對選擇策略產生影響。進一步從參與者的背景影響決策角度來比較實驗與理論推導結果，就統計學修習與否而言，無修習統計學者較能做出較符合機率期望值理論推導之混合策略；就管理經驗而言，無管理經驗者較能做出較符合機率期望值理論推導之混合策略。此外分析參與者背景因素之交互作用，實驗結果發現參與者的性別與管理經驗的交互作用以及人格特質與管理經驗的交互作用對於選擇策略有顯著差異。 Games are everywhere in peoples’ life, we make decisions all the time. To achieve the satisfying results, the study demonstrates the importance of using mixed strategies. Hence the study design of one shot game for 150 college students participating in the classroom, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of gender, colleges, whether to attend in economics, mathematics education, personality trait on decision-making behavior in three different situations of game, while the use of mathematical derivation, according to the game theory of this study participants what strategies should be taken to get the best return, and finally differences compared with the experimental results to verify the similarities and differences between theory and experiment. The results showed that participants in three different situations had different decision-making behavior which was not significant, and the average working probability were nearly 1/2 in each stage. Furthermore, this is not consistent with the theoretical results based on the reference of Mixed Strategies Game. Therefore, the research assumed that the participants tend to use random type inference choices. School, Gender and Economics Studying in all participants do not affect their choice of strategy, but Statistics studying and Work experience of management in all participants has impact on the strategy of decision-making . Furthermore, compare the results of the experiment and theoretical results, it showed that participants who don''t study Statistics have chosen better choice than who study Statistics before. Another thing is that participants who don''t have management experience have chosen better choice than who have. To analyze the interaction of participants’ background, it was found that participants in the interaction of Gender and School have significant differences on strategic behavior. Statistics studying and Work experience of management also have significant differences.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of International Business] Thesis

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