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    Title: 台灣未來五十年人口預測
    Other Titles: Taiwan's population projections for the next 50 years
    Authors: 游雅喬;Yu, Ya-Chiao
    Contributors: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    李順發;Lee, Shun-Fa
    Keywords: 人口預測;生育率;台灣;Population forecast;Fertility rate;Taiwan
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2016-01-22 14:48:01 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文預測台灣未來五十年總生育率、總出生數和總人口數。我們發現總生育率最快可在2024年回升至1.6人,最慢在2044年可望回升至1.5人,但總出生數在2024年開始從20幾萬人下降到10幾萬人,導致總人口數從2024年開始下降,主要原因是台灣育齡婦女人數持續減少,未來即使生育率能止跌回升,總人口數還是呈現負成長,顯示人口結構開始朝向少子化及高齡化的轉型趨勢。
    We forecast Taiwanese total fertility rate, total number of births, total population for next 50 years. We find that total fertility rate will rebound to 1.6 children at most in 2024 and 1.5 children at least in 2044. The total number of births will begin to decrease from about two hundred thousand to one hundred thousand in 2024. This also follows that total population begins to decrease. The main reason is that the childbearing-year women decrease continually. Even if the fertility rate is raised, the total population will decline in the future. Aging population and low fertility are both in the future Taiwan.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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