金融自由化對拉丁美洲國家經濟表現的影響 : 合成控制法的應用

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Title:	金融自由化對拉丁美洲國家經濟表現的影響 : 合成控制法的應用
Other Titles:	The impact of financial liberalization on the economic performance of selected Latin American countries : a synthetic control approach
Authors:	張鈺驊;Chang, Yu-Hua
Contributors:	淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班林佩蒨;Lin, Pei-Chien
Keywords:	經濟成長;金融自由化;資本市場開放;拉丁美洲國家;合成控制法;economic growth;official liberalization;Capital market liberalization;Latin America;SCM
Date:	2015
Issue Date:	2016-01-22 14:48:00 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	金融自由化在1980年和1990年代，由許多新興國家所實施，各國欲藉由此開放政策，來達到促進經濟成長之目的，可是政府所預期的政策效果，在亞洲以及拉丁美洲地區，產生完全迥異的結果，特別是中南美洲大部分國家在開放後，其經濟表現遠不如亞洲地區的金融開放國家，為了探究此原因，遂本文將研究金融自由化對拉丁美洲國家之經濟影響。受限於資料的完整性，本研究將以8個拉丁美洲國家為實證樣本，並輔以15個未實施金融自由化政策之控制組國家，作為比較對象。我們參考Bekaert et al.(2005)以資本市場開放時間所建構的虛擬變數，來當作金融自由化之指標，而本次的資料期間為1983年至2004年。由於研究此相關主題之實證文獻所採用的計量方法，會有內生性或主觀選擇等問題，但透過近年來所發展的合成控制法(synthetic control method,簡稱SCM)可以降低這些統計誤差，因此本文將運用此模型來進行估計，而以下為本次研究所得出之結論: 1.智利和秘魯是唯二呈現金融自由化政策能帶給經濟正面且顯著發展的國家。 2.根據阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥、委內瑞拉、哥倫比亞和厄瓜多爾之實證結果，顯示金融開放政策對其經濟成長沒有顯著性的助益，其中哥倫比亞和厄瓜多爾在開放數年後，經濟發展不如未開放的情況。 3.在金融自由化後，經濟表現有顯著上升的國家(智利和秘魯)，其國內有穩定的政商環境、健全的法令制度以及良好的國家財政。 In the 1980s and 1990s, there were a couple of emerging countries implementing the policy of financial liberalization in order to promote economic growth. However, the economic consequences after financial openness in the area of Latin America and Asia are completely different, with Latin American countries relatively lagging behind their Asian counterparts. However, previous studies in this topic using cross-country data generally not only infer the effect on average but also possibly suffer the endogeneity problem. For that concern, we conduct comparative case studies by applying the synthetic control method (SCM) to reinvestigate the impact of financial liberalization on real GDP per capita of selected Latin American countries. Our sample consists a sample of 23 countries, with 8 targeted Latin American countries and 15 control countries, over the 1983-2004 periods. The main findings of this research are as follows: 1. Chile and Peru are the only two cases that render the positive economic effect resulting from financial liberalization. 2. On the other hand, financial liberalization does not show significant growth effect in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador. 3. Due to the stable political and business environment, strict decrees system and sound national finance, Chile and Peru can benefit from financial liberalization.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Industrial Economics] Thesis

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