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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/105110

    Title: 金融自由化對拉丁美洲國家經濟表現的影響 : 合成控制法的應用
    Other Titles: The impact of financial liberalization on the economic performance of selected Latin American countries : a synthetic control approach
    Authors: 張鈺驊;Chang, Yu-Hua
    Contributors: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    林佩蒨;Lin, Pei-Chien
    Keywords: 經濟成長;金融自由化;資本市場開放;拉丁美洲國家;合成控制法;economic growth;official liberalization;Capital market liberalization;Latin America;SCM
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2016-01-22 14:48:00 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 金融自由化在1980年和1990年代,由許多新興國家所實施,各國欲藉由此開放政策,來達到促進經濟成長之目的,可是政府所預期的政策效果,在亞洲以及拉丁美洲地區,產生完全迥異的結果,特別是中南美洲大部分國家在開放後,其經濟表現遠不如亞洲地區的金融開放國家,為了探究此原因,遂本文將研究金融自由化對拉丁美洲國家之經濟影響。受限於資料的完整性,本研究將以8個拉丁美洲國家為實證樣本,並輔以15個未實施金融自由化政策之控制組國家,作為比較對象。我們參考Bekaert et al.(2005)以資本市場開放時間所建構的虛擬變數,來當作金融自由化之指標,而本次的資料期間為1983年至2004年。由於研究此相關主題之實證文獻所採用的計量方法,會有內生性或主觀選擇等問題,但透過近年來所發展的合成控制法(synthetic control method,簡稱SCM)可以降低這些統計誤差,因此本文將運用此模型來進行估計,而以下為本次研究所得出之結論:



    In the 1980s and 1990s, there were a couple of emerging countries implementing the policy of financial liberalization in order to promote economic growth. However, the economic consequences after financial openness in the area of Latin America and Asia are completely different, with Latin American countries relatively lagging behind their Asian counterparts. However, previous studies in this topic using cross-country data generally not only infer the effect on average but also possibly suffer the endogeneity problem. For that concern, we conduct comparative case studies by applying the synthetic control method (SCM) to reinvestigate the impact of financial liberalization on real GDP per capita of selected Latin American countries. Our sample consists a sample of 23 countries, with 8 targeted Latin American countries and 15 control countries, over the 1983-2004 periods. The main findings of this research are as follows:

    1. Chile and Peru are the only two cases that render the positive economic effect resulting from financial liberalization.
    2. On the other hand, financial liberalization does not show significant growth effect in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador.
    3. Due to the stable political and business environment, strict decrees system and sound national finance, Chile and Peru can benefit from financial liberalization.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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