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|Title: ||貨幣政策對房地產價格非線性影響之研究 : 以台北、上海為例|
|Other Titles: ||The research of non-linear impact of monetary policy on housing prices between Taipei and Shanghai|
|Authors: ||林佩賢;Lin, Pei-Hsien|
聶建中;沈中華;Nieh, Chien-Chung;Shen, Chung-Hua
|Keywords: ||貨幣政策;房地產價格;平滑移轉模型;Monetary policy;Housing Prices;Smooth Transition Model|
|Issue Date: ||2016-01-22 14:47:32 (UTC+8)|
In recent years, global housing prices are soaring. Therefore, governments all around the world also release policy to control the housing prices. And the monetary policy is one way to control the housing market. Hence, I used the monthly data for Taipei and Shanghai and selected annual growth rate of the money supply, mortgage rate and balance of loans as monetary policy variables with consumer price index and household disposable income as macroeconomic variables. By using the Smooth Transition Model and setting the annual growth rate of the money supply as a threshold to observe when the annual growth rate of money supply in different intervals, how the independent variables affect real estate market of Taipei and Shanghai in the period from 2005 to 2014 and 2007 to 2014, respectively. The empirical result are described as follow:
For Taipei city, when the annual growth rate of the money supply near to the threshold value, the balance of loan was significantly positive affect housing prices and the mortgage rate was significantly negative affect housing prices; In addition, when the annual growth rate of the money supply was greater or less than the threshold value, the balance of loan was also significantly positive affect housing prices while the mortgage rate and consumer price index were significantly negatively affect housing prices.
For Shanghai city, when the annual growth rate of the money supply was less or equal to the threshold value, the annual growth rate of the money supply and the balance of loans were significantly positive affect housing prices. In the contrast, when the annual growth rate of the money supply was greater than the threshold value, the balance of loans and the mortgage rate were significantly positive affect housing price while the annual growth rate of the money supply and consumer price index were significantly negative affect housing price.
|Appears in Collections:||[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文|
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