本文探討總體經濟變數與房價指數之間是否具有關連性。採用非線性方法之平滑移轉迴歸模型，以貨幣供給成長率作為門檻變數，樣本期間為2003年第1季至2013年第4季，研究各別之貨幣供給成長率、利率、經濟成長率、消費者物價指數對台北市與香港兩個城市房價指數之影響。實證結果指出兩城市在貨幣供給成長率未達門檻值時，貨幣供給成長率與利率對台北市房價指數為負相關影響，經濟成長率則無顯著影響；在香港方面，利率對其房價指數卻為正相關影響，經濟成長率為負相關影響，而貨幣供給成長率並無顯著影響，唯有消費者物價指數與兩地房價指數皆為同向變動。 政府貨幣政策對房價有甚遠之影響，時常牽動著房地產價格起伏。因此，從總體經濟面加以修正能有效平衡房價走勢。 表單編號：ATRX-Q03-001-FM040-03 This article is to discuss whether it has relationship between macroeconomics variables and house price index. Applying the method of nonlinear smooth transition model and utilizing the growth rate of money supply as a transition variable. Sample period is from 2003Q1 to 2013Q4.Researching the impact on macroeconomics which involve in the growth rate of money supply, interest rate, economic growth rate, and consumer price index for house price index between Taipei and Hong Kong. The empirical result verified that the both cities are under the interval of the growth rate of money supply, the growth rate of money supply and interest rate are negative correlation with house price index in Taipei, economic growth rate is no relation to Taipei. On the other hand, interest rate is positive correlation with house price index in Hong Kong, nevertheless, economic growth rate is opposite, the growth rate of money supply is no relation to Hong Kong. Only the consumer price index is positive correlation with house price index in both cities. Government monetary policy has great impact on housing price, stirring housing price from time to time. Therefore, to revise macroeconomics can effectively balances housing price trends. 表單編號：ATRX-Q03-001-FM040-03
