本論文研究以日經225指數作為衡量日本經濟發展之代理變數。探討美國、日本量化寬鬆政策後，日經225指數在日幣匯率貶值的變化下，受總體經濟變數及日幣貶值之非線性影響。 本研究透過平滑移轉模型，預期日本量化寬鬆政策之後之日本股票市場會出現大幅上揚的情況。其中，預期實證結果之平滑移轉模型會呈現ESTR，當上個月日幣匯率超越某門檻後，投資人預期日本出口產業獲利增加，將資金投入股票市場，使股票市場勁揚。日本和台灣皆為仰賴國際貿易的國家，探討日本這次量化寬鬆的政策成功與否，可做為台灣執政當局的借鏡，檢驗寬鬆的貨幣政策是否為解決當前經濟困境的一帖良藥亦或是毒藥。 In this thesis, the Nikkei225 index as a measure of proxy variables Japanese economic development .Discussion on after the United States and Japan quantitative easing, the non-linear effects of Nikkei225 through the yen exchange rate depreciation, changes in macroeconomic variables. Through the smooth transition model, this study expected the Japanese stock market will be sharp rise after the Japan quantitative easing. In the case, which is expected to the smooth transition model will show ESTR, when last month the Japanese yen exchange rate beyond a certain threshold, the investors expect earnings increase in Japan’s export industries, putting money into the stock market, so the stock market rise. Japan and Taiwan are all dependent on the international trade, and to explore whether the quantitative easing policy in Japan success or not, can be used as the ruling authorities learn in Taiwan, testing quantitative easing policy in order to solve the current economic difficulties are a quote medicine or poison.
