比較歐韓與美韓自由貿易協定談判之路徑依賴

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Title:	比較歐韓與美韓自由貿易協定談判之路徑依賴
Other Titles:	Comparing the path dependency of the negotiations of the EU-Korea FTA and the U.S.-Korea FTA
Authors:	謝孟席;Hsieh, Meng-His
Contributors:	淡江大學歐洲研究所碩士班黃偉峰;卓忠宏
Keywords:	歐韓FTA;美韓FTA;路徑依賴理論;遞增回報;EU-Korea FTA;U.S-Korea FTA;Path dependency;increasing returns
Date:	2015
Issue Date:	2016-01-22 14:43:51 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	自2006年美韓FTA起談後，與美國同為競爭對手的歐盟也在同年展開預備會議，並在隔年與韓國展開談判。兩份FTA的談判議題與市場開放程度相當，也同樣是大型經濟體對上中型經濟體的談判，更同樣在談判過程中遇到爭議事項，但何以較晚開始的歐韓FTA較為順利，也較快完成生效程序? 為了對該問題進行研究，本文運用了路徑依賴理論，將談判完成的過程視為「路徑」的形成，比較歐韓FTA與美韓FTA的洽簽過程。依據路徑依賴理論，「遞增回報」為影響 FTA 談判路徑是否有所進展的關鍵之一。因此本文將分析重點放在遞增回報的構成要素，以此制定路徑依賴指標來分析歐韓FTA與美韓FTA的談判進程。首先，本文將遞增回報的構成要素分為談判投入時間、預期貿易增額與談判文本完成進度三大項，並設計路徑依賴指標計算方法。接著計算三項指標在談判各回合的累積程度，以此觀察談判路徑形成過程。依據路徑依賴理論，每一回合的遞增回報促使了談判路徑的形成，不僅是談判進行的動力，也對決策者產生壓力，因為一旦中途放棄談判除了使遞增回報無法兌現外，談判者還必須承擔談判過程中已付出之時間等沉沒成本，因此對於談判者決策造成影響，使得談判路徑因此一步步形成，最終完成談判。 This paper observes and compares the negotiation processes of the EU-Korea FTA and the U.S.-Korea FTA using the idea of path dependency extracted from historical institutionalism. According to the idea of path dependency, increasing returns is the key to the development of an institution. Since this paper views the final text of an FTA as “institution”, the research sets up three indicators to evaluate the development level of such institution. The three factors of increasing returns are devoted time, expected growth of trade volume, and the completion level of FTA texts. The thesis then calculates the three indicators and obserbs the developing processes of these two negotiation paths. The paper discovers that there’s positive correlation between the level of indicators and the phenomenom of path dependency; namely, the higher the former, the higher possibility of the happening of path dependency.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of European Studies] Thesis

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