台灣能源安全戰略： 理論分析與模式模擬之檢視

淡江大學機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 國際事務與戰略研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/104911

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题名:	台灣能源安全戰略：理論分析與模式模擬之檢視
其它题名:	Taiwan's energy security: analytical theory and realistic simulation
作者:	蘇紫雲;Su, Tzu-Yun
贡献者:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班翁明賢;Wong, Ming-hsien
关键词:	碳政治;氣候安全;氣候變遷;共賴式安全;國家綠能戰略;Carbon Politic;Codependent Security;National Green Energy;National security;energy security;Energy Policy Simulation
日期:	2015
上传时间:	2016-01-22 14:42:38 (UTC+8)
摘要:	相對於20世紀國際體系的石油政治，21世紀的國際情勢則出現新的結構轉變，氣候變遷成為明顯而迫切的威脅，使得各國替代能源大幅提高以減少排碳，同時美國油頁岩的產量大增，使美國達到能源自主的目標，更江成為全球最大產油國。綠色能源的增加以及美國原油產量大增，結果就是國際原油供過於求、石油武器不再是傳統產油國的戰略利器，使得國際秩序再次重整。本研究由台灣的能源安全出發，探討台灣擁有的綠能潛力可以替代的進口能源當量，以分析替代能源可以對台灣國家安全、氣候變遷之人類安全、乃至外交的貢獻。同時，探究傳統安全、非傳統安全的演變，以及未來趨勢。藉由模型模擬軟體推演，本研究發現台灣的綠色能源可替代26%的進口能源、減少1億5千萬噸的碳排放、也符合國際控制溫室氣體的外交與商業趨勢，具有極大的國家利益。同時，藉由模型的量化研究，也印證傳統安全與非傳統安全的質化論述具有實質的價值，面對「巴黎協議」的新環保機制，兩者的規範性理論並未過時，只需部分調整便可因應21世紀國際間「碳政治」的新挑戰。基於此，本研究嘗試提出「氣候安全」、「共賴式安全」、以及「國家綠能戰略」等理論觀點與政策建議。也希望發揮拋磚引玉的效應，未來能有更佳的研究產生。 Carbon Politics is one of major elements of international affairs in 21th century. Which involves the climate changes, green technologies, international regimes, oil weapon, and even geopolitics. It make also challenges and opportunities especially for Taiwan in the new international situation. This island has depended heavily on import of energy to support its economic and daily essentials for decades even it owns huge resources of renewable energy. It’s time for Taiwan to redefine national security and energy policy not only to health for its security but also to contribute the climate security. These issues and questions would be worth exploring for academic goal and policy decision. The research focus on new security issue including climate changes and the strategic role of renewable energy. To achieve the goals simulation modeling software was applied in this studies besides security theories review. And author was fortunate to get assistance from ITRI Taiwan, World Bank U.N., Stockholm Environment Institute, and Department of Development and Planning Aalborg University kindly afforded modeling software to help this studies. There are 26% fossil energy can be replace and 150 million tones of Co2 cut at least by this research estimate through simulation modeling system. The result is obviously show value of renewable energy should Taiwan invest resource and to choose right strategies. Meanwhile, research result shows international system might come out new face under climate threat, including carbon politics, codependent security, oil be used as a bargaining chip should play new role, and a bipolar geopolitical structure confrontation between sea power and land power.
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