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    Title: 胡錦濤時期的中共南海戰略行動之研究
    Other Titles: An analysis of China's strategic action in the South China Sea in the Hu Jintao's Era
    Authors: 許勝泰;Hsu, Sheng-Tai
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
    施正權
    Keywords: 胡錦濤;南海;薄富爾;行動戰略;Hu Jintao;South China Sea;Andre Beaufre;Strategy of Action
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2016-01-22 14:42:16 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中共鄰國眾多、複雜,在陸地邊界劃界、海洋島嶼主權等方面,與周邊國家存在爭端。胡錦濤主政期間,陸地90%定界問題獲得解決,但東海、南海島嶼主權爭端日益加劇。胡錦濤接任總書記前夕,中共甫與東協國家簽署《南海各方行為宣言》,但其任內未能積極推動簽署《南海各方行為準則》,亦未有奪占南沙島礁舉措。本論文研究動機在於尋求胡錦濤應對南海爭端的最高政策指導原則、行動模式,以及據以預測習近平南海政策之行動戰略。希望運用法國戰略學家薄富爾行動戰略理論,探究南海在中共國家發展戰略的位階、定位,解析其處理南海主權爭端問題的行動模式,進而預測未來可能行動。
    整體而言,胡錦濤主政期間,南海的行動戰略偏重守勢,但戰略行動強調攻勢,南海諸多行動係以滿足、支持國家發展目標為主要考量,是以即使南海利益受損,但若有助於利用戰略機遇期實現最高政治目標,對其而言,仍屬成功擴大行動自由的戰略行動。此外,胡錦濤應處南海爭端具備完整行動戰略,各項行動路線均指向達成最高政治目標。以薄富爾的行動戰略理論解析,中共外部動作全面啟動,內部動作側重心理層面,外部反動作著重分化,內部反動作回應升級,但因法理論述缺乏攻擊力、「共同開發」流於口號、「中」美矛盾制約行動自由,以及軍力崛起加大周邊不安等因素,以致行動成效不如預期。
    展望習近平開始主政後的南海形勢出現新變數,包括習近平權力基礎穩固、戰略行動更趨積極、戰略行動多元靈活、南海合作成為對臺工作重要籌碼等,習近平時期的南海戰略行動更加自由。
    China shares borders with many countries and is involved in border and island sovereignty disputes with a number of its neighbors. In Hu Jintao''s governing period, almost 90 percent of the border disputes can be settled. On the contrary, the dispute over sovereignty in the East China Sea and the South China Sea have increased rapidly. Before Hu got the position of the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, China has signed "the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea" with the Member States of ASEAN. However, Hu didn''t promote to sign the "Code of Conduct on the South China Sea" vigorously and didn''t take act in occupying any Nansha islands.
    Research motive of this thesis is to analyze Hu''s highest policy guidelines and mode of action toward the SCS dispute in order to predict Xi''s SCS policy. Based on Andre Beaufre''s Strategy of Action theory, the author''s aim is to find the significance of the SCS towards the development of China''s national strategy. Then predict possible action in the future.
    As a whole, during Hu''s reign, the SCS strategy emphasized on defensive strategies while the strategic actions emphasized on the offensive strategy. Obviosly, China''s main consideration when dealing with the SCS issue is to meet and support national development.Even if it damaged China''s outh China Sea interests, it helps to achieve the highest political goals in the the period of strategic opportunities. For China, it is still a successful strategic actions to expand freedom of movement. In addition, there is a complete strategic action toward the SCS dispute for Hu which leads to the highest political goals.
    According to Andre Beaufre strategic theory, China fully activates exterior manoeuvre and its internal action focuses on psychological level. Furthermore, China''s exterior counter-manoeuvre focuses on differentiation and interior counter-manoeuvre upgrade smoothly. However, the legal principle constraint of the freedom of action caused by lack of offensive power, "joint development" becoming a mere slogan, the contradiction between China and the US, and the concern over the rise of the military power which is worrying neighboring countries are the reasons that the result is less than expected.
    After Xi Jinping came into power, the situation in the SCS changes and new future variables emerge, including Xi''s steadily growing power, aggressive strategic actions becoming flexible and diversify. These indicates that the SCS cooperation becoming an important bargaining chip for cross-strait issue. Xi''s South China Sea strategic action will be more unrestrained.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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