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    題名: 我國於南海地區實施軍事脅迫戰略可行性研究
    其他題名: Feasibility study of Republic of China's military compellence strategy in the South China Sea
    作者: 陳彥甫;Chen, Yen-Pu
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    陳文政;Chen, Wen-zheng
    關鍵詞: 南海問題;軍事外交;脅迫戰略;廣大興28號事件;South China Sea;Military Diplomacy;Compellence;2013 Guang Da Xing No. 28 incident
    日期: 2015
    上傳時間: 2016-01-22 14:41:23 (UTC+8)
    摘要:   自1960年代聯合國證實南海蘊藏大量油氣資源後,圍繞著南海的周邊諸國無不積極爭奪、經營在該區域的發言權;我國雖握有完善的法理證據可以實質,在初期仍有能力在區域內強勢執法、捍衛主權。然隨著外交重心的移轉,對於南海主權與利益的維持我國已實感威脅。在國際局勢上風雨漂泊,為避免樹造一「麻煩製造者」的形象,過去數十年來我國將軍事力量排除於外交使用的選項之中;正因在南海能夠操作的選擇有限,同時面臨南海諸國與中共的軍備競賽,這都將使我國未來在南海更難保有一席之地。
      為避免此一問題繼續擴大,本研究自軍事外交研究發想,後以軍事脅迫戰略作為研究重點,以我國實際面對的情勢與可以動用之力量出發,透過文獻檢閱、個案分析與情境分析等研究方法鎖定本研究的研究目的:我國是否有能力在南海地區實施軍事脅迫戰略?透過學術化、系統化研究後本研究得出數項有待我國克服之阻力,其中包括軍事力量是否能夠支應任務的需求、我國內政環境的考量、國家信譽與意圖傳達是否能夠精確的使被脅迫國做出理性決策、以及國際環境的限制等。
      在研究過程中雖面臨上述各種阻力與挑戰,但對我國而言若欲在南海實施軍事脅迫戰略,欲克服這些阻礙以避免陷入脅迫困境也並非不可能,僅是需要謹慎計算實施軍事脅迫戰略時的效費比,唯有在適當的時機使用才能使成本的投入達到最大收益。在實施軍事脅迫戰略的過程中需要考量的成本無非可以國內、外區分,對國內而言對於整體資源的運用、對於內政社會的反應、或者執政黨自身的政治考量等都將對脅迫戰略的成本產生影響。對於國外而言是否破壞我國與美國間目前運作良好的外交關係,或者引入如俄羅斯等國的區域外勢力等可能的風險。
      總結而論,我國可能遭遇到的阻力可以透過智慧解決,同時在南海地區實施軍事脅迫戰略也實際可行;然而握有軍事脅迫的能力僅是我國在處理南海問題時的選項之一,至於是否使用、何時使用這就必須要回歸根本的政治問題思考,一方面避免陷入脅迫困境的泥沼,同時也真正完成國家戰略、發展的需要。
    In the 1960s, the Union Nation claimed that the South China Sea (SCS) contains a huge of fossil resources, all the states around it then began to jump in the struggle with its sovereignty. Although the Republic of China has the most powerful evidences to show SCS as our territory, we don’t really working hard in it because of our overall policy. The threats become more and more intensified when those states who want to take over the right of speak in SCS, we still see the military means out of our diplomatic efforts. When our policy options became less and less, the hope and chance we can hold SCS as usual will become a trouble.

    To avoid such a dilemma constitute the motivation of this research. This thesis starts from the military diplomacy, then moves to the core idea: compellence. Using the methods such as literature review, case study, and scenario analysis; then we comes to conclude some obstructions of our compellence in SCS. Those are the military capability to task, domestic affairs issue, intentions and message communication, and the limits from the international arena etc.

    The thesis topic “Can the Republic of China take compellence strategy in the South China Sea?”, the thesis suggests the answer will be positive: our country can getting over all the obstructions. Still, we have to understand how to avoid the “compellence dilemma”, or the target misplaced is going to defeat ourselves. To give an easy summary, we have the ability to taking military compellence strategy in the SCS. In order to maintain our national interest, we can’t have no chooses when we really need it. The conclusion of this thesis will be telling all the readers, the Republic of China do have the ability to taking action in SCS, the only consider is the political decisions whether do it.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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