| 摘要: | 在全球政經變動下，中國積極與東協建立友好政經互動關係，使其在亞太區域影響力逐漸擴大，挑戰美國霸權在亞太的戰略佈局。東協身為亞洲區域整合的要角，東協亦透過與中美的相互依賴關係，增加他在此區域與此兩大強權互動之籌碼。
本研究以基歐漢和奈伊的相互依賴理論為架構，以全球化作為中美雙方競合之推力，東協則為中美競逐角力之場域，來探討中美透過政經策略在東協的戰略佈局。
本研究有以下結論:
一、 中國對東協以經濟合作提高政治互信程度，2013年雙邊貿易達3500億美元，為東協第一大貿易對象。中國主要戰略因素包含:符合其外交方針、助於穩固邊疆、爭取南海主權、獲得東南亞資源、強化中國於東亞甚至亞太之主導力與國際話語權、減少美國於亞太區域之影響力，以及台灣因素等。
二、 美國主要透過軍事合作來維繫與東協之關係。主要戰略因素包含:石油運輸航線、新加坡麻六甲海峽戰略位置、反恐等；維繫日韓澳菲泰等核心戰略夥伴；幫助其勢力拓展至南亞、中亞及中東；獲得亞太主導權、鞏固美元地位，以及爭取印度市場等。
三、 東協的價值在於政治，東協呈現在經濟上依賴中國市場，軍事上依賴美國來穩定區域安全，藉與美軍事合作提升軍力及國際地位，藉由推動RCEP及東協經濟共同體來鞏固勢力、強化其經濟實力以應對外部環境之競爭。
四、 美國透過標榜規則競爭的TPP展現「重返亞洲」，中國則支持RCEP、提倡建立亞投行、絲路基金及FTAAP。RCEP與TPP具有相互競爭、互補共存及相互聚合等特性，據Peter Petri等人之研究顯示，中美將是FTAAP建成後的最大受益者，而由於未來中美關係是主要關鍵，筆者認為RCEP與TPP相互加入擴員較能顧及中美雙方感受，亞太自貿區達成與否，及實際成效尚有賴於中美關係之相互磨合。
Under the challenges of Globalization, China has been seeking the opportunities to join the regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific areas by enhancing the political and Economic relations with ASEAN in recent years, however, theses actions have actually created the pressure and threats on the Asia strategies of the US government.
By playing the important role in the East Asia area and the Asia-Pacific region, ASEAN is gaining more power and bargaining chips from both China and the US in trems of the
strengthened interdependence. The interdenpendence theory developed by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye can provide a framework to this analysis, and the idea of globalization can be taken as the impulse or driving power to the coopetitive relations between China and the United States, and that is to say, ASEAN, of course, is the political arena for these two super powers in this circumstances. According to reasons above, the research purposes are as following:
1.The key factors of China’s political and economic strategies whthin the cooperation with ASEAN.
2.The key factors of the political and economic strategies of the United States under the cooperation with ASEAN.
3.The response of ASEAN toward the strategies from China and the United States.
4.The analysis of the coopetition between TPP and RCEP, and the roles of China and the United States.
The research conclusion are as following:
1.China aims to enhance the mutual trust on political divisions by pushing economic cooperations with ASEAN. The bilateral trade between China and ASEAN reached $350billion in 2013, meanwhile, China has become the largest trade partner of ASEAN. In sum, China’s key strategic factors include: first, the cooperation with ASEAN is in compliance with its foreign policy; second, it helpsto sucure its borders and forntiers; third, for the sovereignty of South China Sea; forth, for the access to the natural resourses in Southeast Asia; fifth, to strengthen its dominance and influences in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific areas; sixth, to reduce the US influence in this area, as well as Taiwan factor and so on.
2. The United States tends to maintain good relations with ASEAN by increasing military cooperations with them. The main strategic factors include: first of all, the oil
shipping route, the Straits of Malacca and the strategic position of Singapore. Second, for the porpose of the anti-terrorism cooperation; third, to maintain the relations with core strategic partners such as Japan, Korea, Australia, Philippines and Thailand. Forth, to expand its force to South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Fifth, to consolidate the dollar’sstatus in the Asia-Pacific, and to strive for the markets of India.
3. For China and the United States, the significance of ASEAN is its political position. Therefore, ASEAN tends to stay neutral between China and the United States
in terms of political position, not only presents the economic dependence on China, but also depends on the US military cooperation and assistance to secure the stability in this region and promote its own military force as well. For the external challenges, ASEAN aims to accomplish RCEP and the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 to consolidate
its dominant status in the Asia-Pacific.
4. The United States is pushing its “ Returning to Asia” policy by promoting TPP, the so called, rule-based competition. On the other hand, China is not only
supporting RCEP, but also advocating the establishment of AIIB, Silk Road Fund and FTAAP. In this situation, both RCEP and TPP have the specific characteristics in
competitiveness, complementary coexistence, and the possibility of cooperation.
According to Peter Petri, China and the United States will benefit the most from FTAAP, and the Sino-US relations will be the major factor for the success of FTAAP. Therefore, to ensure the Sino-US relations can be maintained accordingly, it would be more acceptable and comfortable for both China and the US if FTAAP is going to be reached by the cooperation and the mutual-accession
of RCEP and TPP. |
