中共「十八大」後美「中」台關係之研究

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Title:	中共「十八大」後美「中」台關係之研究
Other Titles:	Research of the relations among United States, People Republic of China and Republic of China after Chinese Communist Party's eighteenth National People's Congress
Authors:	邱垂均;Jyun, Chiu-Chu
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班潘錫堂;龔春生;Pan, Hsi-Tang
Keywords:	亞太在平衡戰略;九二共識;新型大國關係;一國兩制;mainland policy;1992 Consensus;One China principle;One Country Two Systems
Date:	2015
Issue Date:	2016-01-22 14:40:07 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	2012年11月召開的中國共產黨第十八屆全國代表大會，象徵著中共由第五代領導人開始正式接班，亦代表習近平時代的到來。從「十六大」到「十七大」中國大陸的對外政策主要強調，「大國是關鍵、周邊是首要、發展中國家是基礎、多邊是舞台」，在「十八大」又加上「公共外交是補充」，成為「五位一體」的外交核心戰略。連任的歐巴馬政府多次的對外發表美國將重返亞洲，除了重申美國對主權爭端解決的既有立場之外，特別強調美國是一個太平洋強權、海事國家、也是亞太地區的安全保證者，對海事安全，尤其南海問題，有極高度的利害關係，不可能忽視不顧，特別是在面對中國新一代領導人的交班，該如何看待崛起的中國？究竟視其為競爭者或合作伙伴？是交往還是圍堵？是敵對競爭還是合作互利？美國對「中」或對台政策要如何調整，才得以維護整體利益。另外，自2008年3月馬英九在總統大選上獲勝，並以一個中國為基礎的「九二共識」為基本立場，使得北京相對釋放善意，在兩岸交流政策以及台灣的對外政策方面，給予台灣政府較多空間，以開展積極的兩岸政策與多元交流，而兩岸關係一直是架構著台灣發展的關鍵性因素，尤其在中共「十八大」後，其對台政策的一貫立場原則的重申，也有對兩岸關係和平發展充滿了新思想、新論述和新方針，再加上台、美「低調、零意外」的良性互動，以及美「中」關係高張力的變化，而產生錯綜複雜的三個雙邊關係，使得美、「中」、台關係未來的可能發展值得吾人深入探討。本文透過文獻分析法，藉由上述分析及中國大陸「十八大」後新一代領導人習近平對台、美政策與互動，可以預判美「中」台未來的發展仍在亞太再平衡戰略與構建新型大國關係所產生的三個雙邊關係之中相互牽動，尤其台灣處於美、中兩強在亞太地區企圖突破或包圍的戰略競逐中，更應發揮「巧實力」平衡發展與雙方的關係及爭取區域內國際認同。 Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) eighteenth National People’s Congress (NPC), held in November 11th, 2012, symbolizes CCP’s fifth leader, Xi Jinping, has taken the office and sets the stage for his era. The foreign policies of mainland China from 16th to 17th National People’s Congress mainly focused on major powers are critical, surrounding countries are primary, developing countries are foundational, and international institutions are instrumental. Besides, the quo “public diplomacy is supplementary” was added in 18th NPC represents PRC’s “five in one” core diplomatic strategy. The Obama Administration issued a series of announcements indicating that the policy of rebalancing of Asia. Not only he reaffirms his existing standpoint of solving sovereignty issues, but also emphasizes United States of America (USA) is a superpower and maritime state and a peace keeper in Asian-Pacific region. For maritime safety, especially in issue of South China Sea, has a vital stake which cannot be neglected. Especially, in facing of new leader of raising China, competitor or partner, engagement or containment, US policies toward CRP and ROC become significant in order to protect overall interests in U.S. Moreover, since Ma Ying-jeoun has taken the office and has accepted 1992 Consensus in March, 2008, there are more opportunities in the cross-strait exchanging policies and ROC’s foreign policies because of political goodwill provided by PRC. And cross-strait relations are always being the key factor of development of ROC. After the 18th NPC, PRC claims the policy towards ROC will remain the same and also has new thought, new view point and new guidance in building cross-strait peaceful relations. Besides, ROC’s current low-key, surprise-free approach to further strengthen trust with US and variance of US-China high-tension relations form three complicated bilateral relations. So, the trilateral relations among USA, PRC and ROC is an important issue and worth discussing. By utilizing documentary analysis to analyze interactions between Xi Jinping and US/ROC can foresee the dynamic so-call three bilateral relations formed by rebalancing strategy in Asia and the new model of major-country relations. More importantly, ROC should utilize smart power to build relations with US and PRC and further gain recognition of international community.
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