影響好萊塢電影票房銷售的決定因素之分析

淡江大學機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 美洲研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/104766

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题名:	影響好萊塢電影票房銷售的決定因素之分析
其它题名:	An analysis of the major determinants of box office sales for Hollywood movies
作者:	徐邦;Hsu, Pang
贡献者:	淡江大學美洲研究所碩士班柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
关键词:	美國電影;普通最小平方法;分量迴歸;影評評分;總體經濟指標;American Movie;OLS;Quantile Regression;Film Critics Rating;Macro-Economic Index
日期:	2015
上传时间:	2016-01-22 14:20:36 (UTC+8)
摘要:	好萊塢電影產業是美國最具有價值的文化和經濟資源之一，不但創造了巨額的收益，也讓世界各地的人們無形間瞭解了美國文化。儘管美國的電影產業獲利豐厚，但是巨額的前期成本投入、消費者反應的不確定性與預測性的困難，使得電影被歸類於高風險產業之一。若能瞭解影響電影票房的因素，就能避免過度投資所造成的損失，並且更精確地掌握到電影票房銷售的可能落點與提出可行的行銷方案，創造出最大的收益效果。綜合上述說明，本研究旨在分析影響好萊塢2004年到2013年電影票房銷售的決定因素，並應用多元迴歸法與分量迴歸法，去分析電影相關變數與經濟相關變數兩者與美國電影票房績效之間的相互關係，再進一步有效預測和解釋影響電影票房銷售的決定因素。研究結果發現，劇情類型電影與其他類型相比之下，會讓消費者感到無聊，並降低了他們去電影院的意願。無論製作預算是1百萬美元，還是1千萬美元，產品對消費者來說價格都是一樣的；因此，較龐大的製作預算會讓消費者對於該部電影的品質較具有信心，並能夠吸引潛在的電影觀眾。電影片長越長越好，觀眾很明顯地想要撈本，認為電影越長，才越能值回電影票價。高影評評分可以提高消費者去看電影的意願，進而提升了電影總票房的銷售；此外，由於影評與觀眾的價值觀差異性，導致部分電影雖然得到低評分，卻有辦法開出亮眼的電影首週票房。分量迴歸的結果指出，電影總票房在0.1分量的電影，其電影片長越長，反而會引起消費者的反感。製作預算對於0.1分量之電影首週票房，相較於其他分量有著更強烈的正向影響。最後，電影首週票房在0.1與0.2分量的劇情類型電影，相較於其他分量會有更強的負向影響。 The Hollywood film industry is considered to be an extraordinarily important part of the United States, both from a cultural and economic perspective. Not only is the film industry extremely lucrative, but it also effectively propagates American culture around the world. Although the film industry is relatively profitable in general, the high upfront cost of investment, the uncertainty of future consumer reaction, and the difficulty in predicting success all lead to high risk in the film industry. Despite this, it may be possible to avoid investment failures through the implementation of sound marketing strategies if one can identify the salient determinants of box office sales. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the major determinants of box office sales for Hollywood movies over the period 2004-2013. The analysis applies both multivariate and quantile regression methods to study the interrelations between box office and two general categories of explanatory variables, including movie related variables and macro-economic variables. The research results indicate that: (1) dramas have a very significant negative impact on the box office performance compared to other genres, (2) ticket prices are relatively stable regardless how much has been invested into producing the movie. Hence movies with a huge production cost have a very significant positive influence on the box office revenues, and so does the length of the movie, (3) critics'' rating play a prominent role in a movie''s success. Movies that are rated highly by critics typically enjoy very significant positive impact on their box office sales. In addition, due to the different values between critics and consumers, some movies still succeed in the first week box office even though they have received a low rating from the critics. The results of quantile regression discover that: (1) the length of a movie has a negative impact on the 0.1 quantile of total box office, (2) production cost has a remarkably positive influence on the 0.1 quantile in the first week of the box office, (3) dramas have a strong negative impact on the 0.1 and 0.2 quantile in the first week of the box office.
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