研究結果發現,劇情類型電影與其他類型相比之下,會讓消費者感到無聊,並降低了他們去電影院的意願。無論製作預算是1百萬美元,還是1千萬美元,產品對消費者來說價格都是一樣的;因此,較龐大的製作預算會讓消費者對於該部電影的品質較具有信心,並能夠吸引潛在的電影觀眾。電影片長越長越好,觀眾很明顯地想要撈本,認為電影越長,才越能值回電影票價。高影評評分可以提高消費者去看電影的意願,進而提升了電影總票房的銷售;此外,由於影評與觀眾的價值觀差異性,導致部分電影雖然得到低評分,卻有辦法開出亮眼的電影首週票房。分量迴歸的結果指出,電影總票房在0.1分量的電影,其電影片長越長,反而會引起消費者的反感。製作預算對於0.1分量之電影首週票房,相較於其他分量有著更強烈的正向影響。最後,電影首週票房在0.1與0.2分量的劇情類型電影,相較於其他分量會有更強的負向影響。 The Hollywood film industry is considered to be an extraordinarily important part of the United States, both from a cultural and economic perspective. Not only is the film industry extremely lucrative, but it also effectively propagates American culture around the world. Although the film industry is relatively profitable in general, the high upfront cost of investment, the uncertainty of future consumer reaction, and the difficulty in predicting success all lead to high risk in the film industry. Despite this, it may be possible to avoid investment failures through the implementation of sound marketing strategies if one can identify the salient determinants of box office sales. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the major determinants of box office sales for Hollywood movies over the period 2004-2013. The analysis applies both multivariate and quantile regression methods to study the interrelations between box office and two general categories of explanatory variables, including movie related variables and macro-economic variables.
The research results indicate that: (1) dramas have a very significant negative impact on the box office performance compared to other genres, (2) ticket prices are relatively stable regardless how much has been invested into producing the movie. Hence movies with a huge production cost have a very significant positive influence on the box office revenues, and so does the length of the movie, (3) critics'' rating play a prominent role in a movie''s success. Movies that are rated highly by critics typically enjoy very significant positive impact on their box office sales. In addition, due to the different values between critics and consumers, some movies still succeed in the first week box office even though they have received a low rating from the critics. The results of quantile regression discover that: (1) the length of a movie has a negative impact on the 0.1 quantile of total box office, (2) production cost has a remarkably positive influence on the 0.1 quantile in the first week of the box office, (3) dramas have a strong negative impact on the 0.1 and 0.2 quantile in the first week of the box office.