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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/104620


    Title: The Use of Knowledge in Prediction Markets: How Much of Them Need He Know?
    Authors: Chie, Bin-Tzong;Chen, Shu-Heng
    Keywords: prediction markets;Schelling segregation model;zero-intelligence agents, Hayek hypothesis;tolerance capacity;exploration capacity;favorite-longshot bias
    Date: 2015-01-01
    Issue Date: 2016-01-06 11:05:06 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: In this article, we extend an early agent-based spatial model of the prediction market
    by taking into account the heterogeneities of agents in their tolerance capacity (tolerance
    to neighbors with different political identities) and in their exploration capacity (exploration
    of the political identities of other agents). We then study the effects of these heterogeneities
    on the behavior of the prediction market, including prediction accuracy, determinants
    of earnings, and income distribution. First, in terms of prediction accuracy, we
    find that, compared to the homogeneous case, bringing heterogeneity into the model can
    generally improve the prediction accuracy, although its statistical significance is limited.
    In particular, the well-known empirical regularity known as the favorite-longshot bias
    remains almost unchanged with this extension. Second, through the heterogeneous-agent
    design, we find that both capacities (personality traits) of agents have a significant positive
    effect on earnings, and the effect of the exploration capacity is even more dramatic.
    Third, through their effects on earnings, both capacities also contribute to income inequality,
    but only to a mild degree with a Gini coefficient of 0.20.
    Relation: Journal of Information Science and Engineering 31(1), pp.1-22
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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