淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/104336
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    題名: Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions
    作者: Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Russell L. Elsberry
    關鍵詞: Tropical cyclones;Extended-range ensemble forecast;Forecast verification
    日期: 2013-12-09
    上傳時間: 2016-01-06 10:55:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: An opportunity exists to extend support to the decision-making processes of water resource management and hydrological operations by providing extended-range tropical cyclone (TC) formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the 51-member ECMWF 32-day ensemble. A new objective verification technique demonstrates that the ECMWF ensemble can predict most of the formations and tracks of the TCs during July 2009 to December 2010, even for most of the tropical depressions. Due to the relatively large number of false-alarm TCs in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts that would cause problems for support of hydrological operations, characteristics of these false alarms are discussed. Special attention is given to the ability of the ECMWF ensemble to predict periods of no-TCs in the Taiwan area, since water resource management decisions also depend on the absence of typhoon-related rainfall. A three-tier approach is proposed to provide support for hydrological operations via extended-range forecasts twice weekly on the 30-day timescale, twice-daily on the 15-day timescale, and up to four times a day with a consensus of high-resolution deterministic models.
    關聯: Journal of Hydrology 506, pp.42-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.025
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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