淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/104336
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 62797/95867 (66%)
造访人次 : 3748036      在线人数 : 500
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻


    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/104336


    题名: Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions
    作者: Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Russell L. Elsberry
    关键词: Tropical cyclones;Extended-range ensemble forecast;Forecast verification
    日期: 2013-12-09
    上传时间: 2016-01-06 10:55:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: An opportunity exists to extend support to the decision-making processes of water resource management and hydrological operations by providing extended-range tropical cyclone (TC) formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the 51-member ECMWF 32-day ensemble. A new objective verification technique demonstrates that the ECMWF ensemble can predict most of the formations and tracks of the TCs during July 2009 to December 2010, even for most of the tropical depressions. Due to the relatively large number of false-alarm TCs in the ECMWF ensemble forecasts that would cause problems for support of hydrological operations, characteristics of these false alarms are discussed. Special attention is given to the ability of the ECMWF ensemble to predict periods of no-TCs in the Taiwan area, since water resource management decisions also depend on the absence of typhoon-related rainfall. A three-tier approach is proposed to provide support for hydrological operations via extended-range forecasts twice weekly on the 30-day timescale, twice-daily on the 15-day timescale, and up to four times a day with a consensus of high-resolution deterministic models.
    關聯: Journal of Hydrology 506, pp.42-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.025
    显示于类别:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    index.html0KbHTML203检视/开启
    Opportunities and challenges for extended-range predictions of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological predictions.pdf3445KbAdobe PDF22检视/开启

    在機構典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

    TAIR相关文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回馈