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    題名: 全球化趨勢對兩岸經濟與區域發展之影響-總計畫暨子計畫三:兩岸三通對臺灣觀光旅遊業及總體經濟之研究
    其他題名: The Impacts of Deregulation Policy for Mainland Tourists on Taiwan$S Tourism Industry and Macro-Economy
    作者: 麥朝成
    貢獻者: 淡江大學產業經濟學系
    關鍵詞: 觀光旅遊政策;工業化;悲慘化;匯率波動;投入產出分析;Tourism Policy;Industrialization;Immiserization;Exchange Rate Fluctuation;Input-Output Analysis
    日期: 2012-01
    上傳時間: 2015-05-05 16:41:35 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 自中國大陸開放以來,其經濟實力大幅提昇,中共也逐步放寬人民出國觀光之限制。兩岸自1949年後一直相互敵對,1979年大陸和美國建交,兩岸觀光產業有了劇烈轉變。1988年我國首度核准大陸專業人士5人進入臺灣,起初陸客來臺旅遊限制極嚴,2006年4月大陸才解除到臺灣觀光旅遊之管制。2009年兩岸定期直航,大陸來臺觀光人數暴增,現已占總旅客三分之一,遞增之勢不止。 目前觀光旅遊的經濟文獻,重點在觀光發展是否不利工業化,或有無降低社會福利的悲慘化可能。一般假定觀光產業偏向使用土地,未曾考慮偏重資本之交通運輸業。兩國匯率波動對觀光業及整體經濟之影響,亦少著墨。就臺灣而言,以投入產出分析大幅開放陸客觀光之影響,嚴謹的經濟分析甚少。 本計畫為三年期計畫,第一年計畫將旅行社、客運、旅館、餐飲、特產、文化藝術表演等,合併為交通運輸業與在地產業,建立一個包含貿易產業、在地產業、及交通運輸產業三部門的一般均衡模型,探討開放觀光對總體經濟之影響。第二年計畫引進匯率波動的不確定,運用期望效用理論,分析觀光旅遊活動對國民所得、就業、進出口之影響。第三年計畫則使用投入產出方法,研究我國大幅開放陸客觀光對總體經濟之影響,並著重各產業發展之前景預測。
    The China Mainland's economic potentiality increases in evidence after its open-door policy in 1978. The tourism industries of China Mainland and Taiwan get a drastic change after the establishment of diplomatic relations of China and USA. In 1988, five China's professionals were allowed to visit Taiwan. Permitting Mainland tourists to visit Taiwan is very strict till the de-regulation policy of China Mainland in April, 2006. The economic literature of tourism studies focus on the topics of whether or not a tourism boom results in de-industrialization, and if the tourist boom may immiserize the domestic residents.Generally speaking, most of the tourism models do not consider the existence of transportation industry and ignore the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on sightseeing industry and overall economy. In the first year project, we will combine travel agencies, transport service, hotel industry, food and beverage industry, local specialty, artistic performance to form both transportation industry and local industry. We construct a general equilibrium model with the three sectors of traded industry, local industry and transportation industry to examine the impacts of tourism policy on the macro-economy. In the second year project, we will extend the first year's model to the inclusion of exchange rate fluctuation, and then study the effects of the tourism deregulation policy on national income, employment, export and import by means of the expected utility theory. In the last year, we will conduct input-output analysis to examine the impacts of the policy of allowing Mainland tourists to visit Taiwan on Taiwan's economy, and focus on the forecasting of the development of all industries.
    顯示於類別:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 研究報告

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