本計畫將利用一個特殊的分析架構來評估貨幣與財政政策對產業之成長、波動性與貿易 (出口) 的影響效果。利用Rajan and Zingales (1998) 的模型設定與跨國--跨產業的資料，我們想要檢驗一個國家的貨幣與財政政策若越反經濟循環 (countercyclical)，其對那些特別依賴外部融資 (external finance) 的產業之經濟成長、成長波動性與貿易是否帶來較大之影響？除此之外，我們也將分析反經濟循環的貨幣政策與財政政策到底可視為替代品或是互補品，而此將有重要政策涵義？除了循環性外，我們會進一步分析權衡性的 (discretionary) 貨幣政策與財政政策對產業之成長、波動性與貿易的效果。最後，我們也將考慮貨幣政策與財政政分別在景氣繁榮與衰退時，對上述幾個重要經濟變數所可能產生的不對稱 (asymmetric) 效果。 This project plans to assess the growth, volatility and trade (export) effects of monetary and/or fiscal policy in a unified framework. By applying the Rajan and Zingales’ (1998) specification to a large panel of cross-country, cross-industry data, we will analyze whether more countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies exert a disproportionately larger effect on industrial growth, volatility and export in sectors that are more reliant upon external finance. Moreover, we also examine if monetary countercyclicality and fiscal countercyclicality can be better described as substitutes or complements, with important implications for policy designs. In addition to countercyclical components, we also examine the impacts of discretionary components of monetary and fiscal policy on industrial growth, volatility, and export. Finally, we will consider the possibly asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal policies during expansions and recessions as well.
