超市會員回購力分析

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Title:	超市會員回購力分析
Other Titles:	Analysis of supermarket member's repurchase ability
Authors:	于靖;Yu, Ching
Contributors:	淡江大學資訊工程學系碩士班蔣璿東
Keywords:	時間函數;概念飄移;顧客輪廓;行為定位;Time function;concept drift;Customer profile;Behavioral targeting
Date:	2014
Issue Date:	2015-05-04 09:58:56 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在連鎖生鮮超市營運中，由於寄送實體的直郵廣告(Direct Mail, DM)預算有限，為了讓超市行銷人員可以有效的針對高消費能力，且具有較高機率會回超市消費的顧客群進行實體DM的寄送，我們依據概念飄移(Concept drift)的觀點，將『時間函數』與『消費過去行為』兩個因素結合，針對每位顧客建立其回購力指數(Re-purchase Index with Time factor, RIT) ；當顧客回購力指數愈高表示該顧客不但消費能力高且會回來消費的機率 (回購率)也高。本論文中使用國內知名的連鎖生鮮超市所提供之交易資料，針對每位會員建立其回購力指數，我們將利用回購力指數針對不同消費行為之顧客，找尋寄送DM的目標客戶。最後，本論文將對目前生鮮超市只對總消費金額的高客戶群寄送實體DM的做法，與本文提出的回購力指數方法進行比較分析；經由實驗數據顯示，在找尋寄送DM的目標客戶時，利用回購力指數的方法不但能可以更有效的選取高回購力顧客，還可以降低選取到相同顧客的機率(重複率)；在有限的預算下，能夠選出更多不同的顧客，更有效的針對具消費力的潛在顧客寄送DM。 While operating supermarket businesses, we would like to target customer for marketers to mail direct mails(DM) because of the limitations of budget. Beside, high repurchase rate didn''t mean that customers had high purchase ability, high purchase ability might not present that customers have high repurchase rate. To let marketers mailing DMs to the right target customers, in this paper, we would discuss the relations between purchase behavior and repurchase rate and use transaction data of customers to construct Re-purchase Index with Time factor (RIT) for every customer. Then, we would predict the repurchase rate of customers that have high purchase capacity with concept drift and purchase behavior. Due to the current supermarket marketing target customers were chosen based on the total money that they had spent. In this article, we would analyze and question this model. At the same time, we would like to target customers that had different purchase behavior based on RIT model, so that, marketers could select the best target customers with higher possibility revisit rate, to reach the goal of increasing profit by reducing the costs of mailing DMs for supermarket.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering] Thesis

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