在全球化的浪潮下，國內的企業走向開放及自由化之路，其經營環境不斷地改變，並正接受嚴厲的考驗。隨著經營規模的擴大，企業的經營成敗可以和國家經濟產生緊密的連結。企業獲利則社會經濟得以蓬勃發展，反之企業若遭受衝擊而產生經營壓力甚至危機狀況，所造成影響的層面將非常廣泛。此時具規模的企業及產業必須提早因應危機發生的潛在可能，並尋求可靠的財務危機預警機制。過去的學術研究多以基本分析處理財務危機問題，而實務上亦多採用資料探勘技術尋找財務危機形成的因素。 本研究旨在探求企業經營過程中所產生的財務危機警訊，並基於動態類型的財務危機理論，尋找出公司危機狀態規則，研究包含利用馬可夫決策過程對於企業財務指標的分析，預測企業所遭受的不同危機程度。其次利用演化策略的隱含平行搜尋能力，輔以馬可夫決策過程的評估，以發掘出企業於各危機階段之財務狀態規則。 透過演化計算技術可以加速找出財務預警機制，並提升機制本身的可信度。對於企業而言，不同程度的財務規則暗示著有潛在危機至高度風險財務危機發生的可能，企業本身可對此提出不同的因應之道解決經營問題，政府可以依此做為評估公司上市上櫃的依據，身處經營外部的投資人亦可做為投資選股決策的參考，以免投資到地雷股而得不償失。 Business environment has greatly changed since Globalization, domestic companies faced with more impact to business operation. Corporate management is closely linked with national economics; its profitability may help on development for economics and society. On the contrary, failure or financial distress companies can largely affect banks, many other companies and people around us. It is necessary for large corporates to make early response to the financial distress and seek for reliable financial distress alert. Past studies using basic analysis on financial distress; practically, Data mining is frequently used to find the cause of financial distress. This study focused on exploring financial distress alert in corporate business, and search for financial distress rules based on dynamic financial distress model. This study includes analyses on corporate financial indices utilizing Markov decision process; it could predict distress levels that corporate will faced with. Secondly, Evolution strategies (ES) has capabilities of implicit parallel search, using ES and get evaluated by Markov decision process will find financial status on every distress state. It could be more efficient and more credible to find out the financial distress alert through Evolutionary computing. For corporates, financial rules level implies the severity level of financial distress. The corporate may propose different responses to solve the business operation problem; the Government may make assessment on tanking company public on listed and OTC market. Inventers may take these rules as a reference on making decision to select stock holdings, and avoid investing tank stocks.
