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    Title: 動態路徑導引:兩種嵌入個人認知行為之比較研究
    Other Titles: Dynamic route guidance:a comparative study of two alternative approaches with embedded individual cognition behavior
    Authors: 林沛穎;Lin, Pei-Ying
    Contributors: 淡江大學運輸管理學系碩士班
    董啟崇
    Keywords: 無異帶模式;累計期望模式;資訊不確定性;逐點動態路徑選擇行為模式;控制實驗;Indifference Band;Cumulative Prospect Theory;Information Uncertainty;Node-to-node dynamic route choice;Controlled Experiment
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-05-04 09:52:56 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 現今傳統的導引系統提供的泛用資訊可針對旅程規劃建議行駛路徑並提供預估的旅行時間,但未考量該資訊的不確定性以及用路者對該資訊不確定性反應的潛在差異性。本研究採控制實驗法,探討以兩種旅運行為模式為基礎,就額外資訊不確定特性以附屬機率呈現,影響用路者路徑決策作用差異,其一為基於無異帶模式提供之適配度機率值呈現方式,另一為基於累計期望模式提供之出象強度機率值呈現方式;並以現今常用之泛用資訊為對照。
    本研究工作內容包含三部分: (1)透過問卷調查用路者基本特性以及對於附加適配度、出象強度兩種新型態資訊導引方式的認知態度,作為第二部分控制實驗之先驗知識。(2)進行兩階段動態控制實驗,第一階段實驗構建現今(一般)導引方式下用路者逐點動態無異帶行為模式,參數校估結果用於計算路徑變換之機率值,納入第二階段實驗作為相互呼應之附加路徑資訊的個人適配度以及路徑資訊出象發生強度機率數值之來源,經實驗結果之決策資料分別構建嵌入適配度之無異帶模式及嵌入出象強度之累計期望模式 (3)系統化比較兩模式預測非習慣路徑被選機率與實際決策差距之預測能力以及三種導引方式下用路者離開習慣路徑之改道意願。
    歸納本研究的重要發現: (1)用路者對適配度認知方面,相較於不熟悉地區,在熟悉地區須提供建議行駛路徑較高的適配度才可提升用路者離開習慣路徑之意願;對出象強度認知方面,個體間對於不同出象強度資訊情境,其認知態度有所差異。(2)本研究成功構建兩種旅運行為模型:嵌入適配度之無異帶模式、嵌入出象強度之累計期望模式,反應用路者於資訊不確定附屬機率呈現方式影響下之路徑變換行為。(3)相較於累計期望模式,具適配度無異帶模式描述用路者路徑決策之預測能力較為穩定;附加適配度資訊呈現方式會使改道意願相對提升,而附加出象強度資訊呈現方式則相對降低。
    Current route guidance system provides general information with estimated travel time of recommended route for trip routing decision. However, such a general system considers neither the uncertainty of the estimated information, nor the potential differences of perceptions among drivers’ to information uncertainty. With a control experiment approach on node-to-node routing dynamics, this study was set to explore two variants of supplying additional travel time uncertainty based on different travel behavior models, one was a “personal match” index derived from Indifference Band model; the other was simply an “outcome strength” index applied as the associated occurrence probability of event outcome from Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). The current information form without extra uncertainty was regarded as base case for comparisons.
    The tasks of this study were in three folds: the first task was a pre-experiment survey to investigate subjects’ information perception attitude toward the new forms of route guidance: the attached “personal match” index as well as the attached “occurrence probability” form. The second task was a two-stage dynamic controlled experiment, subjects will be examined in three difference information guidance type scenarios including: general (without uncertainty information), attached “personal match” probability, attached “occurrence probability” of route time respectively. The node-to-node route choice decisions of all subjects along a specific journey were recorded and modelled. The first stage experiment focused on parameter estimations for the associated travel behavior models, and the second phase focused on constructing comparative study of experiment scenarios. The third task was conducting a systematic comparison regarding the predictability of embedded models and the compliance/switch behavior revealed under various scenarios.
    The major findings of this study are summarized in the following:
    1. Individual subject’s information perception attitude is different under different scenarios of attached occurrence probability form. On the other hand, relative to travelling in unfamiliar areas, subjects travelled in familiar area were reluctant to leave the accustomed route unless higher “personal match” was suggested for the recommended route to deviate from their habitual or preplanned route.
    2. Two distinct travel behavior models were successfully specified and calibrated respectively. Both the Indifference Band model and CPT model could be employed to capture subjects’ routing behavior under respective scenario to the various degrees in terms of predictive ability to explain driver route choice behavior under information uncertainty.
    3. Providing “Personal Match” index based on the Indifference Band model may have the advantages of stability in predictability and promoting higher rate of compliance over providing “Outcome Probability” index based on the CPT model.
    Appears in Collections:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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