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    題名: 二維偏常態破壞衰變模型之貝氏分析
    其他題名: A bayesian analysis of bivariate skew-normal destructive degradation model
    作者: 吳易儒;Wu, Yi-Lu
    貢獻者: 淡江大學數學學系碩士班
    蔡志群;Tsai, Chih-Chun
    關鍵詞: 貝氏分析;偏常態分配;破壞衰變試驗;Bayesian Analysis;skew-normal distribution;Destructive degradation test
    日期: 2014
    上傳時間: 2015-05-04 09:49:03 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 近年來世界能源逐漸短缺,各國科學家致力於發展再生能源,其中又以太陽能為主要發展重點。然而使用太陽能發電系統時,EVA膜中的材料性能衰變之間會間接影響到太陽能使用功率,且各材料性能衰變之間也會相互影響,故本文將針對各材料性能衰變之間進行進一步的探討。首先,本文中針對EVA膜執行一個破壞衰變試驗,並收集EVA 膜中IR2 與TGA Wt loss 兩種材料性能之衰變資料。接下來,根據資料型態建構出二維偏常態破壞衰變模型,並在假設所有參數為隨機變數之下使用貝氏分析法來估計其模型參數並且進一步推估兩材料性能之間的相關性。最後,本文使用實例資料進行模擬分析得到其參數估計值,並繪出其平均衰變路徑之後可得知其模擬結果落在真值附近之可能性並不低,最後重複執行一百次模擬之後驗證本文中E-M演算法之穩健性,並由模擬結果中得到兩材料性能衰變之間呈現正相關。
    With the shortage of energy, scientists are striving to develop the sources of renewable energy. Among these resources, solar energy is currently the most popular, and can provide clean and safe supply of electricity to humans. The power of solar modules is affected indirectly by the decay for the EVA sheet. In this study, the relationship between the material decay for EVA sheet was addressed. Firstly, destructive degradation tests for solar modules are implemented to collect the degradation data for IR2 and TGA Wt loss. Next, a bivariate skew-normal destructive degradation model was constructed to describe the degradation paths of the two material properties. Assuming that all model parameters are random, a Bayesian approach are used to estimate the model parameters, then the correlation between the two material properties can be obtained. The results showed that there is a positive correlation between the decay for two material properties. Finally, a simulation study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.
    顯示於類別:[數學學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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