心理學對自信有多種詮釋，本文將其表現在對於自己能力的信念 (自信)，以及對團隊夥伴能力的信念 (信任)。雙方能力信念影響一個團隊在面對不確定性事件時，對成敗機率以及行動成本的評估。於是，我們藉由一個全知者 (知道真實能力) 的角度來作對照，以評斷自信的提升對整體福利究竟是好是壞。
Confidence is one of the important personalities. When people make decisions, confidence has virtual influence on their psychological state, and further, affects the decisions they make. Therefore, whether the higher level of confidence is better becomes an issue that is worth a discussion. While many related researches had been devoted to the personal decision making, this study leads the research to the group decision making. The aim of this report is to investigate the effect of confidence on a team’s performance and welfare, while taking into account the interactions between team members.
Psychology interprets confidence in many ways. In this paper confidence, as reflected by the both faith, the belief in one’s own ability (self-confidence) and the belief in his partner’s ability (trust), will influence a team’s perception of success and evaluation of action costs when they undertake a risky activity. We analyze the effect of increasing confidence on activity and overall welfare.
In this report, we develop two decision models of teamwork. One is a co-decision model, in which the team members make decisions together in the state of perfect information on the belief in ability. The other is an independent decision model, in which the team members with imperfect information make decisions simultaneously, but independently. The latter is to consider each team member making a decision based on a conjecture about his partner’s priors over his own ability. The result shows that, no matter what the model is, if initially they are both lack of confidence, the increasing of confidence will produce more motivation value which favors to both sides’ expected net welfare. As for the level you trust your partner, the result shows that not to look down on your partner will enhance the welfare effect of increasing confidence. In the comparison, we find that if the level of conjecture about your partner’s priors over ability is higher than his own belief, the effect of increasing confidence in the independent decision model will be better. To sum up, although the team is lack of confidence, if you trust your partner, the increasing of confidence will be beneficial to both sides.