本文以臺灣地區化工產業10家公司的營業收益額為標的，探索美國次級房貸金融風暴期間內，該產業資本結構與公司表現間的關聯性。實證研究首先採用事件分析法，並以營業收益自我迴歸模型為基礎，估計預測模型並計算代表公司表現的營業收益異常值。其次，比較2008年第二季前後各八季的營業收異異常值，觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異。最後，採用縱橫資料分析法，估計2008Q1到2010Q2風暴期間內，樣本公司的淨值、長期負債、銀行授信與應付帳款/票據四種資本結構變數，估計其對營收異常值的影響，判斷不同資本結構的優劣。 實證估計結果顯示，10家樣本公司的表現不一。存量縱橫資料估計結果顯示，對銀行融通依賴高，則公司營收受金融風暴的不利影響較大，而流量資料分析結果則顯示，在流動性緊縮下，若能夠獲得銀行融通者，其營收表現較優。此外，高應付帳款/票據比，亦助於提升營運表現。因此，化工產業經營者平時與銀行以及廠商維持良好的往來，對於公司的經營是屬於有利的結果。 This thesis empirically examines the effectiveness of various capital structures in coping with the adverse effects of the U.S. subprime financial crises on the chemical industry in Taiwan. The quarterly sales of the 10 selected sample firms are examined. The event study method which uses the autoregressive model as the foundation for creating a forecasting model, are adopted to calculate the abnormal sales level to represent performances of the sample firms. Comparisons of the performances of the sample firms during the 8 seasons before and after the 2nd season of 2008 are conducted. The panel data analysis of the effects of 4 capital structures, namely the ratios of equity, long term liabilities, bank finance and accounts/ notes payables to total assets on the abnormal sales are then conducted using data covering the 10 seasons beginning from 2008Q1 to 2010Q2 and regression coefficients estimated. The panel data analysis using the stock variables have shown that large bank loan ration brought about adverse effect to the performance during the financial crisis. Nevertheless, the flow variables analysis shows that companies that can obtain loans continently performed well. Therefore, as far as the chemical industry is concern companies that maintained good relationships with the bank and its suppliers are good strategy in run business.
