台灣景氣循環衰退期之評析

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题名:	台灣景氣循環衰退期之評析
其它题名:	Review the Taiwan economic recession periods Review the Taiwan economic recession periods
作者:	洪瑄憶;Hong, Hsuan-Yi
贡献者:	淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班李順發;Lee, Shun-Fa
关键词:	景氣循環;景氣衰退期;台灣;Business cycle;Recession;Taiwan
日期:	2014
上传时间:	2015-05-04 09:44:27 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本文評析台灣國發會所公布的戰後12個景氣循環衰退期，利用14個景氣指標，分別驗證這些衰退期是否準確。主要結論如下：(1)應將12個景氣循環改為14個循環。(2)如將景氣指標分生產面、投資面、就業面和消費面等四類，12個景氣循環衰退期準確率依序為生產面50.1%、就業面64.3%、投資面為67.5%，消費面為70%。(3)第7、8和10個景氣循環衰退期應有調整的空間。(4)國發會應加入實質機械設備和電機進口值與工業及服務業經常性受雇員工人數兩個景氣指標之變數，更能反應出景氣走向。 We examine the 12 recession periods from 1954 to 2010 in Taiwan, which announced by the National Development Council. We use 14 economic indicators to verify the recession periods. The main results are as follows. (1) The 12 recessions should be changed to 14 recessions. (2) We divide the economic indicators into four types and find that the degree of the accuracy of the 12 recessions are, respectively, Production (50.1%), investment (64.3%), employment (67.5%) and consumption (70%). (3) The 7th, 8th, and 10th recessions are necessary to be modified. (4)We consider that National Development Council should add the two indicators, the Regular employees on payrolls in industry & services and the import volume of machinery and equipment and electronics, to the reference principle of recession.
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