| 摘要: | 人民幣國際化的相關議題近年在中國被學者專家們廣泛的討論，那麼人民幣國際化的程度到底多高？依據克魯曼「最優貨幣區域」理論，人民幣是否有機會發展成區域型貨幣？台灣目前與中國的貿易依存度很高，若台灣未來將朝人民幣離岸金融中心的方向發展，則台灣政府該如何改革開放以做好準備？具體商機在哪？以上皆為本論文探討主要重點。
中國政府目前尚不開放資本帳，亦掌有高度的貨幣自主權，根據孟代爾「矛盾的三位一體」理論，人民幣尚不具高度國際化的充分條件，故中國實施折衷方案，藉由自由經濟貿易特區與展離岸金融中心提升人民幣的國際化程度。本研究根據貨幣國際化程度綜合指標、全球金融中心指數、美元、歐元與日圓國際化的比較、克魯曼「最優貨幣區域的GG-LL模型」等方法探討人民幣國際化的程度，並研究分析在此趨勢下台灣發展離岸人民幣業務現況及未來銀行業可創造的商機。研究結果指出，中國必須藉由擴大自由經濟區的範圍或開放資本帳的限制，才能繼續提升人民幣國際化的程度；台灣銀行業者目前可在自由經濟特區及崑山計畫區內，就較大的人民幣業務開放範圍，擴展各式的商機。
RMB internationalization related issues have been widely discussed in recent years, scholars and experts in China, so the degree of internationalization of the RMB in the end how much? According to Krugman "optimum currency area" theory, the RMB is an opportunity to develop into a regional type of currency? Taiwan has a high dependence on trade with China, Taiwan''s future development if the direction of offshore financial centers, the Taiwan government to reform and opening up, how to prepare? Specific opportunities in which? The above are the main focus of this paper to explore.
The Chinese government is not yet open capital account, but also a high degree of monetary autonomy palm, under the "trinity contradictory" theory Meng Dyer, a high degree of internationalization of RMB is not a sufficient condition, so China implemented a compromise, by free economic trade SAR and development of offshore financial centers to enhance the degree of internationalization of the RMB. According to this study, the degree of internationalization of the currency comprehensive index, Global Financial Centres Index, dollar, euro and yen international comparison, Krugman "optimal currency area GG-LL model" and other methods to explore the degree of internationalization of the RMB, and research In this analysis the trend of Taiwan''s development of offshore RMB business banking current status and future opportunities will be created. The study concluded that China must be to expand the scope of free economic zones or open capital account restrictions, in order to continue to enhance the degree of internationalization of the RMB; Taiwan banks are currently available in the free economic zones and Kunshan project area on larger open RMB business scope expanded variety of opportunities. |
