本研究針對台灣電子業類股之中國概念股公司為研究標的，透過非線性方法之平滑移轉模型，並以大陸GDP成長率為門檻變數，探討台灣加權股價指數、上海綜合股價指數與人民幣兌台幣之匯率對電子類中概股之影響，研究期間自2000年第一季至2013年第四季，共56筆季資料。 研究結果如下： 1. 當中國經濟成長率小於門檻值時，台灣加權股價指數與中國經濟成長率對電子類中概股為負相關，上海綜合股價指數與人民幣兌新台幣匯率為正相關； 2. 而當中國經濟成長率大於門檻值時，中國經濟成長率、台灣加權股價指數與上海綜合股價指數對電子類中概股為正相關，而人民幣兌新台幣為負相關。 The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate, TAIEX and Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on the china-concept-electronic sector stocks index by using Smooth Transition Model of nonlinear method, and we use china GDP growth rats as a threshold variable. The research period was from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2013 and totally 56 quarterly data were calculated. The empirical results are described as follows: 1. When China GDP growth rate is less than the threshold value, TAIEX and China GDP growth rate for china-concept-electronic sector stocks index showed negative effects, but the impact of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and exchange rate to positive to influence. 2. When China GDP growth rate is greater than the threshold value, TAIEX, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and China GDP growth rate for china-concept-electronic sector stocks index showed positive effects , while exchange rate has negative effects.
