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    Title: 歐洲聯盟區域經濟整合之貿易效果 : 引力模型受GDP影響之非線性探討
    Other Titles: The trade effect of European Union regional economic integration : the nonlinear effect of the gravity model affected by GDP
    Authors: 張詠婷;Chang, Yung-Ting
    Contributors: 淡江大學歐洲研究所碩士班
    聶建中;Nieh, Chien-Chung
    Keywords: 歐洲聯盟;區域經濟整合;引力模型;貿易效果;非線性;European Union;Regional Economic Integration;gravity model;trade effect;nonlinear effect
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-05-04 09:18:38 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在歐盟發展的過程中,起初所形成的關稅同盟引起了當時的經濟學家對區域經濟整合帶來的貿易效果的關注,時至今日歐盟已經成為全世界最有影響力之區域經濟體,並搭上了全球貿易自由化的潮流,除了加入世界貿易組織談判,更藉由貿易協定之簽署積極拓展貿易關係,因此,本研究欲探討歐盟區域經濟整合的發展脈絡,並採用引力模型進行實證研究,設立虛擬變數以衡量歐盟區域經濟整合是否存在貿易創造及貿易轉移效果,並進一步拓展模型,以GDP做為門檻變數,來觀察各解釋變數與貿易流量之間是否存在非線性因果關係。

    實證結果發現,在2004至2012年期間,出口國FDI在低於門檻值時,為影響貿易流量的因素之一,進口國的GDP規模不論在出口國GDP門檻值上下均能促進貿易流量增長,高於門檻值時影響更為顯著,而進口國人均所得變數對貿易流量則無顯著影響;另外,在虛擬變數的部分,實證結果顯示,歐盟區域經濟整合在門檻值之下時具有顯著的貿易創造效果,但並無顯著存在貿易轉移效果。
    A model of Custom Union which was set up at the very first beginning in the founding process of the European Union had drawn the economist’s attention to the trade effects of regional economic integration. From then to now, the European Union has become the most influential regional economies in the world and also surfed on the trend of liberalization of International trade. In addition to the Doha Round of World Trade Organization trade negotiations, the European Union has signed several Regional Trade Agreements to expand the market overseas. This paper traces the development of European Union and use the gravity model with dummy variable to analyze the trade effect. And this model also uses the GDP of exporter as a threshold variable to analyze the major factors affecting trade flows.

    Based on the results of this study during the period 2004-2012, the regional economic integration of European Union brings significant trade creation effect but no clear trade diversion effect. The results also show that the major factors influencing trade flows are the GDP of the importer and the FDI of the exporter while the GDP of the exporter as threshold variable. Whether the GDP of the exporter is above or below the threshold value, the GDP of the importer has a positive influence to the trade flows. When the GDP of the exporter is below the threshold value, EU regional economic integration brings trade creation but no trade diversion.
    Appears in Collections:[歐洲研究所] 學位論文

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