| Abstract: | 一、1996年中共欲藉導彈試射演習影響我總統大選，當時美軍派遣二艘航空母艦介入，使中共嚇阻效果不如預期，但美軍介入的航母戰鬥群造成中共軍事發展上的陰影。近年來中共為因應美軍介入臺海，發展出應對的戰略作為，此作為被美智庫稱為「反介入戰略」。雖然中共軍事學界及少提及，然並不意味中共沒有此一概念，在臺海這部分即含有「阻美奪台」的意涵。而「反介入戰略」的本質為「人民戰爭」思想、「積極防禦」的戰略方針，另運用不對稱作戰思維為基礎，達成以弱擊強的戰略作為。
二、「潛艦」具有良好的隱匿、奇襲特性，使其戰略價值更勝於其他武器載具，觀察及研究一、二次世界大戰及英阿福克蘭海戰更足以證明。除在戰術運用上，可執行監偵及襲擊、反潛獵殺、支援艦隊及兩棲作戰、搜救任務與特種作戰外，在戰略運用上更具有破壞航運、布雷封鎖、攻擊敵岸及戰略嚇阻等功用。因此在爭奪制海權的過程中，如能充分運用潛艦作戰特性對戰場的局勢會產生決定性的影響。
三、柴電潛艦在中共反介入戰略中有著舉足輕重的份量，至建政以來積極建設柴電潛艦，期望能藉由其優異的作戰特性，在未來美軍介入時能適時嚇阻美軍介入之企圖，如無法影響其介入之企圖，亦希望可在動用最低兵力及最少投資下，完成阻滯美軍介入之兵力，所以我們必須深度瞭解中共柴電潛艦之真正實力。
The 1996 Taiwan crisis, was the effect of a series of missiles tests conducted by the PRC, allegedly intended to intimidate our presidential election. Two U.S. aircraft carriers were deployed in the vicinity and caused the PRC’s deterrence less effective than expected. The so-called “Anti-Access (A2) Strategy” by U.S. think tanks, is the PRC’s strategy in response to U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups’ access in Taiwan Strait in recent years. Although rarely mentioned in PRC’s military academia, it does not mean the nonexistence of the concept and has an implication of preventing the U.S. seizing Taiwan cross Strait. The essence of "Anti-Access strategy" is the thinking of "People''s War", and the "Active defense" strategic guidance. Also, the application of asymmetrical warfare is the basis of reaching the strategic conduct of a weak force against the strong one.
The stealth and surprise attack feature adds up the submarine’s strategic value than any other weapons platforms. This can be best proved by observations and studies of World War I,Ⅱ and the Falkland. Besides the tactical application - surveillance and reconnaissance (SR), surprise attack, submarine hunting, fleet and amphibious warfare support, Search and rescue missions and special operations, the strategic application includes maritime shipping sabotage, minefields blockade, seashore attack and strategic deterrence, etc. Therefore, the fully utilization of submarine operational features can have a decisive influence to the battlefield during competing the sea dominance.
Diesel submarines play an important role in PRC’s A2 strategy. PRC’s continuously aggressive constructions of diesel submarines lead an expectation, by excellent features, to deter the U.S. force’s attempt of intervention. If the attempt of intervention cannot be shifted, the desire of hindering the U.S. Forces by deploying minimum PRC’s forces and military investment will be the substitute. Based on all the facts, we must have a completely understanding of PRC diesel submarines strength. |
