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    Title: 2012年總統大選國、民兩黨大陸政策主張對選舉結果之影響
    Other Titles: 2012 presidential election KMT and DPP's China policy dvocates impact on election results
    Authors: 蔡永志;Tsai, Yung-Chih
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    潘錫堂;Pan, Hsi-Tang;龔春生;Kon, Michael
    Keywords: 2012總統大選;馬英九;蔡英文;大陸政策;九二共識;台灣共識;2012 presidential election;Ma Ying-jeou;Tsai Ing-wen;China Policy;1992 Consensus;Taiwan Consensus
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-05-04 09:17:51 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 2012年總統大選,尋求連任的國民黨候選人馬英九,與民進黨推舉的候選人蔡英文同台競選,外界把此次大選稱之為「雙英對決」,民進黨原欲尋求第三次的政黨輪替,可惜不幸落敗。現任的總統馬英九以近八十萬票,六個百分點的差距擊敗對手民進黨候選人蔡英文。
    大陸政策不僅在政策研究領域上有其特殊性,更因牽涉到國家定位的統獨問題,而成為政黨反映其意識形態差異的重要指標。受到各種歷史環境因素的影響,政壇上各主要政黨對於統獨議題均具有鮮明的立場,也投射到大陸政策的議題操作上;此外,隨著時代的變遷及社會環境的轉變,以及政權的轉移,各政黨的政策立場也會隨之調整,因而使得大陸政策成為選舉時的炒作話題。2012年總統大選時,蔡英文提出所謂的「台灣共識」,作為其大陸政策主張的核心理念,並與國民黨所提出的「九二共識」作區隔。選前各界原本預估兩人的得票率差距不大,甚至認為蔡英文有望勝選。但是大選結果出爐,蔡英文卻輸了近八十萬票。民進黨此次總統大選敗選的關鍵因素,普遍認為是民進黨始終無法提出具體有效的兩岸政策。經過總統大選失利後,民進黨再度面臨兩岸路線的轉型,如果不能在2016年大選前,提出比「九二共識」更好的兩岸共識,則可能會重蹈2012年「台灣共識」的覆轍。
    因此,本研究意欲針對2012年總統大選時國民黨候選人馬英九及民進黨候選人蔡英文在競選過程中的大陸政策主張,使選民產生的認同與肯定,是否成為勝選的重要因素,加以研究、探討。
    In the 2012 presidential election, the KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, who was seeking re-election and the DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, were the competitors, and that the general public named the election “Showdown of Two Ings”. DPP was originally seeking to be the ruling party for the third time in history but unfortunately it failed. Incumbent president Ma won the election against the DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, by close to 800,000 votes, or 6%.
    China policy is unique in that it not only involves policy research but also the positioning of the country in terms of unification or independence, so that it is an important indicator reflecting ideologies of political parties. Affected by a variety of historical factors, main political parties all take distinctive stances in the unification-independence issue which reflects the handling of China policy. Also, with the changes in time, social environment and the switch of ruling party, the political stance of every party also changes, making China policy a hot topic during elections. In the 2012 presidential election, Tsai Ing-wen proposed the so-called “Taiwan Consensus” as the core philosophy for her China policy, distinguishing it from “1992 Consensus” offered by KMT. Before the election, everyone assumed a small gap of votes for the two candidates, even went as far as predicting Tsai Ing-wen would win the election. However, she lost by close to 800,000 votes. The key factor in the DDP’s defeat in the presidential election was widely perceived as that DDP never offered a concrete cross-strait policy. After losing the presidential election, DDP again faces the transformation of cross-strait policy. If DPP does not offer a cross-strait policy better than “1992 Consensus” before the 2016 election, it very likely will repeat the 2012 “Taiwan Consensus” mistake. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the contributing factors to earning voters’ recognition and winning the election in terms of China policy offered by KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, and DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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