房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究 : 台灣的實證資料之檢視

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Title:	房地產價格與生育率之相關性研究 : 台灣的實證資料之檢視
Other Titles:	The association between housing price and birth rate : an empirical evidence from Taiwan
Authors:	張卉婷;Chang, Hui-Ting
Contributors:	淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班劉志宏
Keywords:	房地產;生育行為;生育率;房價所得比;臺灣;Real estate;Fertility Behavior;Birth Rate;Housing Price-Income Ratio;Taiwan
Date:	2014
Issue Date:	2015-05-01 16:12:01 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究嘗試著探討房地產市場價格之波動與生育行為的相關性之分析。觀察資料為從2004年以來一直到2012年底為止我國六大都會區包括：台北市、新北市、桃竹縣市、台中市、台南市、高雄市的房價所得比資料，來代表房地產市場之榮枯及其後續影響人民所得之指標；依變項則為我國該六大都會區的總生育率，當作人民生育決策之結果；另本研究歸納出可能影響我國生育率的控制變項為：女性勞動參與率、女性教育程度、失業率、結婚率、外籍配偶比例、自有住宅率以及龍年效應，並以PCSE（Panel Corrected Standard Errors，追蹤修正標準誤）的迴歸模型來進行實證分析。本研究的結果顯示，我國的房地產價格上漲其實是與生育率呈現出正相關的關係，推論其可能的解釋為與我國高度的自有住宅比例有關，房價的上揚帶動了財富效果讓人民更積極地去進行生育行為。 This research attempts to investigate the association between real estate price and fertility behavior. The independent variable is Housing Price-Income-Ratio and the dependent variable is birth rate from six metro areas including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan-Hsinchu County, Taichung City, Tainan City and Kaohsiung City in Taiwan , with time spanning from 2004 to 2012 to conduct empirical study. After controlling variables such as female labor participation, female education, unemployment rate, wedding rate, foreignmate ratio, self-owned housing ratio, and dragon year effect, this paper explores the relationship between variable of Housing Price-Income-Ratio, i.e. index to measure housing price, and birth rate. We employ method of PCSE (panel corrected standard error) to run regression analysis. Our empirical results indicate that real estate price is positively associated with birth rate in Taiwan. The result may be due to high degree of self-owned housing in Taiwan. The high-rising housing price increases “wealth effect” which prompt people to give birth actively.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Public Administration] Thesis

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