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    題名: 台灣鄉鎮市區自殺死亡率之地理加權迴歸分析
    其他題名: Geographically weighted regression analysis of township-level suicide rates in Taiwan
    作者: 陳郁雰;Chen, Yu-Fen
    貢獻者: 淡江大學統計學系碩士班
    陳怡如;Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju
    關鍵詞: 自殺死亡率;空間資料分析;空間非穩定性;地理加權迴歸;半參數地理加權迴歸;集群分析;Suicide rates;Spatial data analysis;Spatial nonstationarity;Geographically weighted regression;Semi-parameteric Geographically weighted regression;Cluster Analysis
    日期: 2014
    上傳時間: 2015-05-01 16:11:53 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在過去幾年的研究中, 對於台灣自殺死亡率結合空間分析以探討各種影響因素的研
    究日趨增加, 且普遍使用單一迴歸模式來解釋台灣整體的自殺死亡型態及其影響因素,對於區域性的變化卻鮮少被討論, 亦即空間異質性的部分。因此本研究主要著重在後者進行研究。

    死亡率, 使用地理加權迴歸方法探討不同影響因素(社經結構、生活資源... 等等) 對於自殺死亡率之空間非穩定性效果。研究發現自殺死亡率到後期顯著提升, 且在分別在兩個時期各有不同的影響因素具有空間非穩定性之效果。主要結果顯示, 性別、年齡、和社會人口結構之因素對於台灣自殺死亡率有顯著影響。都市化程度高的區域普遍有較低的自殺死亡率, 而偏遠落後的地區在兩個時期都有高自殺死亡率之現象。區域性的研究結果提供了台灣對於自殺防治和宣導上, 可針對不同地區擬定出適當的防範措施。
    Past years have witnessed an increasing interest in researches that integrate a spatial analytical perspective to explore associations of various area characteristics with suicide rates in Taiwan. The common practice has often been to use a ’single’ regression equation to estimate the associations of interest, While such ’global’ spatial modeling procedure is widely used for studies of suicide in
    Taiwan, little attention has been paid to investigate the local spatial association, known as spatial nonstationarity. This study thus aims to address such empirical analysis gap.

    We analyze the township-level suicide rates in Taiwan for different two periods, years 1996-2000 and 2006-2010. The geographically weighted regression techniques are applied to examine nonstationary effects of different factors, such as socio-economic structures and living resources, on suicide rates.The analysis results show that the suicide rates increase significantly over the two different time periods, and different determinants are found to have spatial non-stationary effects on the suicide rates for each time period. Our substantive findings include that 1) gender, age, and social structure may play an important role for township-level suicide rates in Taiwan; 2) the urban townships also tend to have lower suicide rates while those of rural areas remain high in both time periods. These findings provide an empirical basis for developing prevention programs with local emphases for suicide within Taiwan townships.
    顯示於類別:[統計學系暨研究所] 學位論文


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