即飲茶競爭態勢之量化研究

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题名:	即飲茶競爭態勢之量化研究
其它题名:	Quantify the rivalry of ready-to-drink tea industry
作者:	羅雅琪;Lo, Ya-Chi
贡献者:	淡江大學管理科學學系企業經營碩士在職專班陳怡妃
关键词:	茶飲料;時間序列;向量自我迴歸;Granger因果關係;Beverage;Time series;Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR);Granger Cusality
日期:	2014
上传时间:	2015-05-01 16:11:25 (UTC+8)
摘要:	茶類飲料風潮無論什麼季節，皆能引起消費者的注意力與購買力。對於茶飲料中綠茶、奶茶、紅茶、烏龍茶、水果茶、花茶及其他茶等七項常見品類而言，其間銷售總額潛藏著連動關係，消長互見。可見消費者可能因某特定品類的購買而影響對他種品類的選擇。換言之，當期某一茶品的銷售量對未來其他茶類的銷售量，或將正向影響，或將負面影響；故不同茶類間存在競爭與合作關係。本研究透過飲料公會2000年~2012年，利用近161個月各茶分類的實際銷售數據依進行分析結果發現，水果茶會因為烏龍茶的銷售量變動而變化，綠茶與水果茶會因為紅茶的銷售量變動而變化，水果茶與花茶會因為綠茶的銷售量變動而變化。研究中除找出這七種茶品類間存在的競爭消長的關係外，主要也是透過研究提供消費者喜愛或不喜愛的茶品類比例提升或減少因素，分析透過此競消關係轉變或改變消費者長久以來的消費習性，不斷重新組合出新一代的飲茶消費特性。 No matter what kind of season that Ready-To-Drink tea always can be the purchasing power of the consumer’s attention. For ready-to drink tea categories of green tea, milk tea, black tea, oolong tea, fruit tea, herbal tea and other tea, we will discussd what kind of tea promtion model, does the tea flavors affect for each other as like single flavor with others tea flavor.According to Taiwan Beverage Industries Association report, the date periods are between 2000/1/1~2012/12/31, 161 using mothly data of actual sales turnover. The sales of Fruit tea was changed by Oolong tea, the sales of green tea and fruit tea was changed by black tea, the sales of furit tea and Herbal tea was changed by green tea.From this study that was found out the competition between seven kinds of tea category, and the analysis for consumer tea flavors choosed by like or unlike to change the shopping habits or re-combination of a new generation of tea culture
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