A study of insurance behavior : macro- and micro- analysis

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Title:	A study of insurance behavior : macro- and micro- analysis
Other Titles:	保險行為的總體與個體分析
Authors:	姜義展;Chiang, I-Chan
Contributors:	淡江大學財務金融學系博士班聶建中;林建甫
Keywords:	保險;保險經營;經濟成長;風險認知;Insurance;insurance operations;rsik perception;Underwriting
Date:	2014
Issue Date:	2015-05-01 16:10:34 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本篇論文主要利用三篇文章討論在大陸與台灣保險經營的總體與個體行為分析。其中探討了，第一、中國大陸經濟成長與保險活動之間的關係，第二、保險經營者本身的風險認知與風險偏好對保險公司的績效是否存在顯著的關係．首先為了檢視總體的經濟成長率與保險活動之間的關係，使用panel Granger causality 計量方法去檢驗中國大陸13個中收入省分的GDP成長與保險活動之間的因果關係，在2006年第一季至2013年第一季研究期間結果顯示重慶省、海南省、河北省、黑龍江省、湖北省、湖南省、吉林省、寧夏省、青海省、陝西省、山西省、新疆省保險活動對GDP成長有顯著的單方相向因果關係，僅有河南省實證顯示保險活動與GDP成長存在雙向的因果關係。第二部分經由模型推導出封閉避解探討權益基礎的保證契約的退脫率與保單準備金之間的關係，利用邊際封閉解的方程式進行數值模擬分析，結果可以發現不同的模擬環境下，對應著不同的權益基礎的保證契約的退脫率與保單準備金之間的關係。第三部分主要探討對承保的風險認知與風險偏好行為模式是否會因在不同的部門有著不同的風險認知與風險偏好，以台灣的人壽保險公司為例，透過問券分析可以發現，不同部門的承保人員在風險認知不同下所做出的保險承保態度也會有所不同，在風險偏好下也顯示相同的實證結果。 In this thesis, I provide three essays about the macro- and micro insurance operations in developing countries including China and Taiwan. I devote myself to explore the nexus between economic growth and insurance activity in China, and investigate human factor to find out whether risk perception, risk preference and worldviews play a crucial role in insurance supplier in the Taiwan market. In order to examine whether total insurance activities promote economic growth, the first part in this study applies a bootstrap panel Granger causality test to quarterly data from 13 middle-income provinces in China over the period Q1-2006 to Q1-2013. Empirical results indicate that only one-way Granger causality exists for total insurance activities that affect economic growth in Chongqing, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shannxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang, and there is no Granger causality from economic growth to total insurance activities. However, out of all provinces, only Henan shows two-way Granger causality between insurance activity and economic growth. The second part of this study attempts to measure the impact of dynamic surrender assumptions on policy reserves of equity-based guarantee products contracts. We consider an annual-premium version of variable annuity with a living benefit guarantee. A closed-form solution of the margin offset for this kind of guarantees has been derived in this paper. We also utilize a dynamic policyholders’ lapse formula for simulations to show that the assumptions of market conditions have a tremendous effect upon the magnitude of reserves which means that surrender effect plays a crucial part of risk management consideration of such products. Reserves adequacy testing is definitely necessary to be performed when market condition shifts dramatically. The numerical implementation of the simulation results allow us to catch some comparative static properties and to tackle the problem of estimating suitable policy reserves of equity-based insurance guarantee. The third part of this study uses conjoint expected risk model to find out psychological effect on risk perception did exist in different division of life insurance companies. We investigate the financial risk preference by adopting the subjective-risk-return model. For the reason of comparison, this study also provides the results of objective-risk-return model. By analyzing risk perception and risk preference of practitioners, we may understand more about how they make strategic decisions on insurance operations. Overall findings in this thesis provide solid evidence about the nexus between insurance operations and economic growth, lapse behavior, and risk perceptions/risk preferences of insurance providers both in micro- and macro-level.
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