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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/101465

    Title: 影響美國總統表現滿意度指標之關鍵變數 : 運用緃橫迴歸方程式分析
    Other Titles: The determinants of US presidential job approval : a panel data regression approach
    Authors: 劉文傑;Liu, Wen-Chieh
    Contributors: 淡江大學美洲研究所博士班
    柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
    Keywords: 總統滿意度;緃橫迴歸方程式;虛擬變數;社會心理學;民意調查;Presidential Job Approval;Presidential Approval Rating;Panel Data Regression;Dummy Variable;Social psychology;Survey Method
    Date: 2014
    Issue Date: 2015-05-01 13:31:26 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 總統滿意度是評估工作表現的指標,它是民主政治中獨有的特色,不論在選舉期間或平常任期,已成為反應美國總統政治實力的最佳指標,特別是在選舉期間,若能充份運用影響滿意度的關鍵變數,將有利掌握政治權力的根源。這個領域自1970年代由慕勒教授創始後快速發展,研究主軸亦不斷演進。
    本研究以每位總統在位期間的月份取代實際的日期,並視為各總統彼此間關連之因素, 12位總統均視為具有2任96個月的任期,如此始得以運用緃橫迴歸方程式概念,做為計量分析各類自變數與因變數間的技巧。納入方程式內分析的自變數,都有具體的實證結論;另本研究其他的特色,包括將社會心理學領域中探討受訪者心智作用過程的相關理論,充份運用於篩選自變數及解讀實證結果的重要考量;另亦深入瞭解蓋洛普民意調查公司執行民意調查的程序,俾利驗証足可獲得可信度與準確度的民意調查理論。
    Presidential job approval(presidential approval rating), a survey indicator, falls into the category of performance evaluation for incumbent presidents. This indicator is considered as one of the signature features for democratic politics in modern times. In fact, it has been widely used during both elections and ordinary times as an indicator of actual presidential popularity in America. It is well recognized that the presidential candidate who can make the best use of the determinants of presidential approval ratings during the elections will have the edge to grasp the source of political power. The studies in this field, founded by Professor John Muller in the 1970s, have rapidly developed ever since. The main themes of this research are continuously evolving with the time.
    The timeline for these studies originated on January 1 1948 and ended in October 2012, making a total study length of 64 years. If we put the said timeline into context, the studies covered 12 presidents in all, starting with President Truman and ending with President Obama. The presidential approval ratings of each of the 12 presidents were concatenated into a single time series, and treated as the dependent variable of panel data regression. As far as the independent variables are concerned, all the potential factors are divided into four different categories, including the factors dealing with the features of time series, a wide range of economic variables, consumer confidence indexes, and various dummy variables. The way we create dummy variables is to select critical events that attracted the US public''s attention in the 12 presidents, and separate them into three categories. These categories are political affairs, military events, and social affairs based on nature of event. By doing this, the study successfully broadens the perspectives by treating non-quantitative factors as independent variables of panel data regression. Moreover, we create a chronological database for important events.
    In this dissertation, we replace the actual date with the month in office of each of the 12 presidents, and restructure one-dimensional time series into a three-dimensional format. Furthermore, we investigate the theories of Social Psychology to consider the mind workings of each individual who takes the survey. Meanwhile, we consider issues from Gallup''s perspective, and seek confirmation between theory and actual procedures.
    This dissertation is divided into six chapters. Chapter one introduces the study background, research motivation, research questions, and limitations. Chapter two provides the results of a comprehensive literature review. Chapter three includes the main theories in the fields of social psychology and survey method. Chapter four consists of a wide range of statistics theories that were applied in this study. Chapter five is composed of the results of the statistics empirical results, and the last chapter includes conclusions made by comparing the achievements of this study to other research results and potential topics for future work.
    Appears in Collections:[美洲研究所] 學位論文

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