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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/100638


    Title: Blending Methods for Tactical Decision Evaluation of Diesel Submarine in the Engagement Scenarios
    Other Titles: 柴油潛艦接戰想定下之戰術決策混合評估法
    Authors: Wang, K.M.;Liang, Ko Hsin;Hai, Hui Lin;Hui, Lin;Tang, Yu-Shan;Hung, Yu-Hsiang
    Contributors: 淡江大學資訊創新與科技學系
    Keywords: 行動方案;風險考量;模擬;潛艦;效用;COA;risk taking;simulation;submarine;utility
    Date: 2011-06-02
    Issue Date: 2015-03-08 22:44:17 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: Chung Cheng Institute of Technology
    Abstract: 不同於傳統分析性模型之效益指標僅考量戰具、系統之效能,本研究之目的係以人之冒險
    本性為中心,提出產生最適可行作戰行動方案之決策科學方法,其中包括兩個作業程序:一、
    運用系統模擬求出潛艦存活率並以任務權重方式計算完成任務之給分。二、建立效用初值,
    運用效用函式進行最適作戰方案之分析。結果顯示,最適決策方案會依決策者(三類型指揮官)
    風險偏好有所不同,本研究中選擇高風險卻能迅速完成任務方案之機率分別為:風險追求者
    100%;風險中立者 80%;風險規避者 40%。本研究須獲得更多專家經驗以精準效用函數函式,
    彌補現況之不足。

    Other than the traditional analytical models which heavily emphasize on platforms and systems
    performance , the objective of this paper is to use human risk-taking centric method for generating and
    optimizing the Course Of Actions (COAs) that includes two processes: first, use simulation for sub
    survivability and mission weight for scoring sub mission achievement; second, establish utility value
    and analyze COAs by utility process. The result shows the chance for three types of commanders (risk
    seeking, neutral and averse) choosing risky but efficient COA is100%, 80% and 40%. This analysis
    needs more interviewing samples for being accurate risk-taking utility function in contrast to current
    limited situation.
    Relation: 中正嶺學報=Journal of Chung Cheng Institute of Technology 40(2),頁11-23
    DOI: 
    Appears in Collections:[資訊創新與科技學系] 期刊論文

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